Once you’ve decided to follow an automatic strategy, there are 2 solutions: – Either you choose a super algorithm and hope that it wouldn’t crash after you connect it to your account. – Or you set up multiple algorithms is parallel in your account, hoping that they won’t crash at the same time. What might serve as a super algorithm? For example, consider this one shown on the right.
Why you shouldn’t ever trust a beautiful curve… 430 consecutive profitable trades since 2002. Not bad at all, right? Will I entrust my pennies to it? No way! First of all, because there are no costs. One could add them, and this won’t change the global result too much but this will make the 100% success rate disappear: not commercial enough! Finally, because the performance curve is only shown for Close-To-Close data: this means that you have no idea what is going on during the trading session.
The problem is that we are very much interested to know what is going on during the trade, because this is exactly what is going to happen in our account one day when we will be doing actual trading. However, to achieve this miracle of a 100% success rate over more than 400 trades within 12 years in a row, one had to make a small sacrifice: a stop that is a little remote. Actually, very remote, especially when it’s your own money. The stop is at 14% in reality. Many would say that the risk of 14%, that’s a lot. But then some would say, 14% as a guarantee of never losing, why not, it’s still appealing. Actually, to help everyone to agree, I’d like to remind you that a stop might be executed 2 or 3 times consecutively. And then it begins to do harm. I hope you begin to see what’s the problem with a super algorithm.
The bride has been perfectly dressed, she has been put in perfectly suitable context, but then when you walk her to the bedroom and you start to take her clothes off, ay ay ay! And the next morning, once the makeup is gone, you wish you had made another choice. Trading is to some extent like marriage: once the losses have happened, it’s impossible to simply rewind the video of the ceremony.
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