This topic contains 4 replies, has 2 voices, and was last updated by  Peter Hildebrandt 2 years, 6 months ago.

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  • #183082

    David Zickafoose

    AIMMUNE is setting up the IPO for next week. Currently the only thing they have in their pipeline is AR101, which is an oral medication for peanut allergies. It just finished up ph II and has already received a fast track and a break through designation. It’s set to sell 8,333,333 shares with a price between $14-$16. This will value the company in the neighborhood of $550 million. I suppose the question is whether or not that’s a good place to get into the company. It’s hard to say, but you could use DBVT as the comparable other for AIMMUNE. DBVT received it’s breakthrough designation for a peanut allergy patch on April 9 2015, and AIMMUNE received it’s breakthrough designation on June 18, 2015 for their oral medication. both companies are about to enter phIII with the peanut allergy, but DBVT has more drugs currently in the pipeline (Milk and dustmites), but these are very early in trials. DBVT is currently valued at $1.6B and it had spike in price starting in late June. I think this is correlation with the ending of ASCO and money flowing into other biotechs after the ASCO celebrations ended.

    Roughly 3 Million people have peanut allergies in the US. It’s hard to say what they’ll price the drug at right now, but let’s assume it’s in line with other allergy prescriptions in the US and they price it at $200 a month. If they get %10 of the population that would be about $740 million dollars in revenue. There’s a lot of risk till that moment and a lot of speculation on my part, so you’ll have to figure out your own risk tolerance for the wonderful work of biotech.

    If I can get the IPO price I’m definitely in. If I can get it below a share price of $26 (roughly $900 mil market cap) I’m in also.

  • #183141

    There is a lot of Biotech coming a float in the US. Lots of european biotech too. I am still blown away by the value of Seres Therapeutical and maybe the market has cooled a little bit after?

    But I think its a good buy in the IPO and then sell on the IPO day. I would´t hold on to it for too long, before results starts coming from the pipeline.

  • #183317

    David Zickafoose

    Well I guess today is the day of reckoning for this IPO. From what I know the shares are at $16 and they are selling 10,000,000 shares. That is at the top of the price range they gave and and increase of 1.6 million shares in the offering. Rumor has it that it’s been over booked, that’s why they increased the offerings.

  • #183355

    Hi David did you get any?

  • #183370

    Up 50%. The strategy is good David!

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