As the waters have been choppy for the past several months in Biotech, it has been hard to predict value of the companies. Recently one of the companies Dyax in my investment portfolio was bought out by Shire for $5.9 Billion with and additional 600 million in CVR with the approval of DX-2930. If you are looking for safe money I would suggest buying Dyax now for 34.65, this would give you as the investor a margin of 7.4% plus the ability to capture the CVR upon completion.
However, with this model portfolio I will be selling all the shares in Dyax at 34.65 and reinvesting into Exelixis at a share price of 5.72. The FDA just approved Cobi and Zelboraf in combination for advance melanoma. Cobi is a joint development for Roche/Genentech and Exelixis, and I believe this is just the start of things for Exelixis and Roche/Genentech. I know trying to predict buyouts is about as hard as accurate as Gypsies reading tea leaves, but I think there is a strong chance of buyout with Exelixis in the near future and it all relates to the RCC drug Cabozantinib. Cabo showed strong indications for it’s progression free survival in it’s last study, but the extension of life is still too early to report, however BMS has a drug for RCC that has a different process and is bast on PD-1. I don’t think BMS is the buyer, but I think Roche/Genentech will be the buyer in the near future. This company is in alignment with the M&A strategy of buying companies that supplement and improve it’s current pipeline, also it is a strong defensive play for Roche/Genentech.
Sell all 339 shares of DYAX for $11,746.35 and buy 2053 shares of EXEL at 5.72